 |
International Journal of Scientific Research and Engineering Development( International Peer Reviewed Open Access Journal ) ISSN [ Online ] : 2581 - 7175 |
📑 Paper Information
| 📑 Paper Title | Structural Transformation of Guyana's Economy: An Analysis of Gross Domestic Product by Economic Activity |
| 👤 Authors | Bibi Sherriza Ali, Jason Phillips, Aarif Baksh, Shafeak Ghanie |
| 📘 Published Issue | Volume 9 Issue 4 |
| 📅 Year of Publication | 2026 |
| 🆔 Unique Identification Number | IJSRED-V9I4P67 |
📝 Abstract
This study explores how the petroleum sector affects Guyana's structural transformation of the economy from 2006 to 2025, extending to projections for 2035. The research is based on the literature of the resource curse and structural transformation that explores whether natural resource wealth leads to diversified development or a dependency on extractive industries. Guyana has been on a trajectory of economic growth since 2019, when offshore oil discoveries were made and commercial production began which raised concerns about the changes in the underlying economic structure.
Data by economic activity for GDP is sourced from the Guyana Bureau of Statistics and data analysis methods used are descriptive analysis, sectoral growth comparisons, the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), and ARIMA forecasting methods. To reflect the structural change over time, the analysis is divided into two periods: the pre-oil period (from 2006 to 2019) and the oil production period (from 2020 to 2025).
The results suggest there is a significant change in the economic composition after the beginning of oil production. The growth rate of total GDP was high during the post-oil era and the petroleum industry emerged as the leading contributor of growth. The absolute growth of traditional sectors (agriculture, manufacturing, services) was still significant, but their shares fell significantly. The HHI also indicates a shift from moderately diversified (0.278) to highly concentrated (0.630) economies, with greater reliance on the extractive sector.
Predictions indicate growth in GDP up to 2035 but could be susceptible to external pressures given the high volatility of petroleum output. In general, the research findings suggest that the production of petroleum has been the catalyst for growth as well as for economic concentration, which has led to concerns about petroleum diversification and resilience.
Data by economic activity for GDP is sourced from the Guyana Bureau of Statistics and data analysis methods used are descriptive analysis, sectoral growth comparisons, the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), and ARIMA forecasting methods. To reflect the structural change over time, the analysis is divided into two periods: the pre-oil period (from 2006 to 2019) and the oil production period (from 2020 to 2025).
The results suggest there is a significant change in the economic composition after the beginning of oil production. The growth rate of total GDP was high during the post-oil era and the petroleum industry emerged as the leading contributor of growth. The absolute growth of traditional sectors (agriculture, manufacturing, services) was still significant, but their shares fell significantly. The HHI also indicates a shift from moderately diversified (0.278) to highly concentrated (0.630) economies, with greater reliance on the extractive sector.
Predictions indicate growth in GDP up to 2035 but could be susceptible to external pressures given the high volatility of petroleum output. In general, the research findings suggest that the production of petroleum has been the catalyst for growth as well as for economic concentration, which has led to concerns about petroleum diversification and resilience.
📝 How to Cite
Bibi Sherriza Ali, Jason Phillips, Aarif Baksh, Shafeak Ghanie, "Structural Transformation of Guyana's Economy: An Analysis of Gross Domestic Product by Economic Activity" International Journal of Scientific Research and Engineering Development, V9(4): Page(650-661) May-June 2026. ISSN: 2581-7175. www.ijsred.com. Published by Scientific and Academic Research Publishing.
📘 Other Details