International Journal of Scientific Research and Engineering Development

Uncertainty in load demand and operating conditions poses significant challenges to voltage regulation in radial distribution networks. Conventional deterministic load flow methods, which assume fixed system parameters, are unable to adequately capture these uncertainties. This paper presents a Monte Carlo–based probabilistic load flow (PLF) analysis of the 11 kV Ayepe 34-bus radial distribution network operated by the Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company (IBEDC), Nigeria. Load uncertainties were modeled using Gaussian distributions with varying standard deviations of 25 & 5, 45 & 20 and 75 & 50 active and reactive power respectively and repeated load flow solutions are carried out using the backward–forward sweep algorithm. All simulations were performed in the MATLAB R2022a computational environment. The results are analyzed using two different analysis approaches: Deterministic Load Flow & Probabilistic load flow. Statistical voltage indices, including mean voltage, standard deviation, and probability of voltage violation, were evaluated to assess voltage stability and operational risk using voltage profile curves, probability distribution histograms, and bar charts to facilitate comparative and probabilistic analysis. Results show that although probabilistic mean voltage profiles closely follow deterministic results, several high-load and end-of-feeder buses exhibit a high probability of undervoltage violations under increased load variability. The study demonstrates that Monte Carlo PLF provides a more realistic and risk-informed assessment of distribution system performance than deterministic analysis and is suitable for planning voltage support measures in practical radial networks.

W. Ikonwa, E.C. Obuah,"Probabilistic Load Flow Computations in Radial Distribution System Using Monte-Carlo Simulations" International Journal of Scientific Research and Engineering Development, V9(1): Page(1028-1036) Jan-Feb 2026. ISSN: 2581-7175. www.ijsred.com. Published by Scientific and Academic Research Publishing.